Israel military action against Yemen

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This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

A plan to be implemented by Mossad... Israel has made its decision!
June 30iranintlbrk98%match3¢-100%
He added that neither the Strait of Hormuz will help them, nor will attacks on civilians, nothing will stop Israel. Our forces are ready to finish the job.
May 31mako.co.il99%match10¢-100%
Yaron Avraham: Israeli officials: Trump's decision could quickly lead to action
May 31Al Araby99%match12¢-100%
Israeli Channel 12, citing sources: It is believed that the Houthis launched two drones towards Eilat.
May 31alarabytv99%match12¢-100%
#Breaking | Israeli Channel 12, citing sources: It is believed that the Houthis launched two drones towards Eilat.
April 15aljadeednews99%match5¢-100%
"High alert in anticipation": New instructions for the Israeli army For details: 8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%8A%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A
April 30warmonitor398%match30¢-100%
BREAKING: Missile has been launched from Yemen Houthis towards Israel-Channel 12
May 31israelnews2399%match57¢+75%
Alert: Israel reports a missile fired from Yemen. The military is actively tracking and responding to the launch.
April 30israelnews2399%match30¢-100%
Alert: Israel reports a missile fired from Yemen. The military is actively tracking and responding to the launch.
May 31faytuksnetwork99%match57¢+75%
A launch has been identified from Yemen toward Israel.
April 30faytuksnetwork99%match30¢-100%
A launch has been identified from Yemen toward Israel.
April 30Iran State TV99%match63¢-100%
Ansarullah stresses independence of its decision to act against Israeli-American aggression • •
May 31israelnews2398%match25¢+300%
The Houthis claimed responsibility for launching cruise missiles and drones towards several "vital and military" targets in Eilat.
April 30israelnews2398%match63¢-100%
The Houthis claimed responsibility for launching cruise missiles and drones towards several "vital and military" targets in Eilat.
April 30_martinkelly_98%match63¢-100%
Houthis claimed the 6th wave of attacks against Israel. Only a matter of time before the IDF visits Yemen.
June 30tvalmasirah99%match20¢+400%
Urgent The Yemeni Armed Forces: The operation targeted several vital and military targets belonging to the Israeli enemy in Umm al-Rashrash and achieved its objectives successfully, thanks to God.
May 31tvalmasirah99%match25¢+300%
Urgent The Yemeni Armed Forces: The operation targeted several vital and military targets belonging to the Israeli enemy in Umm al-Rashrash and achieved its objectives successfully, thanks to God.
April 30tvalmasirah99%match63¢-100%
Urgent The Yemeni Armed Forces: The operation targeted several vital and military targets belonging to the Israeli enemy in Umm al-Rashrash and achieved its objectives successfully, thanks to God.
Hebrew media reported the penetration of Yemeni drones into the skies of the occupied territories @TasnimNews
June 30Sky News Arabia99%match24¢+317%
Israeli media: Drone launched from Yemen intercepted over Eilat in southern Israel
May 31Sky News Arabia99%match71¢-100%
Israeli media: Drone launched from Yemen intercepted over Eilat in southern Israel
May 31iranintlbrk99%match71¢-100%
Drone intrusion warning siren sounds in southern Israeli city of Eilat
May 31Al Jazeera99%match71¢-100%
Israeli Home Front Command: Sirens activated in Eilat after drone infiltration detected
April 15Al Arabiya98%match43¢-100%
Al Arabiya correspondent: Sirens sound in Israel after drone infiltration
May 31apnews.com99%match27¢+270%
Yemen’s Houthis claim missile attack against Israel
April 15apnews.com98%match48¢-100%
Yemen’s Houthis claim missile attack against Israel
April 15dropsitenews99%match48¢-100%
BREAKING | The Yemeni Armed Forces say that their military intervention “is a gradual one, and… will not stop at this level in their intervention.” The aggressors will “deal with future developments according to the enemy’s escalation or de-escalation.”
June 30farsnews_agency99%match73¢-100%
‌ Spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces: We have targeted vital targets in Tel Aviv with missiles, and the rate of attacks will gradually increase.
May 31farsnews_agency99%match73¢-100%
‌ Spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces: We have targeted vital targets in Tel Aviv with missiles, and the rate of attacks will gradually increase.
April 15farsnews_agency99%match48¢-100%
‌ Spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces: We have targeted vital targets in Tel Aviv with missiles, and the rate of attacks will gradually increase.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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