Iran closes its airspace
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
US and Iran close to extending ceasefire According to the FT, the parties may extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. The probable memorandum provides for the partial restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions against Iran, and further discussion of the Iranian nuclear program.
US and Iran close to extending ceasefire According to the FT, the parties may extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. The probable memorandum provides for the partial restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions against Iran, and further discussion of the Iranian nuclear program.
US and Iran close to extending ceasefire According to the FT, the parties may extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. The probable memorandum provides for the partial restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions against Iran, and further discussion of the Iranian nuclear program.
US and Iran close to extending ceasefire According to the FT, the parties may extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. The probable memorandum provides for the partial restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions against Iran, and further discussion of the Iranian nuclear program.
The U.S. and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a peace deal to end the fighting on all fronts by Sunday afternoon, a source close to the negotiations told The Washington Times.
US and Iran move closer to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators • Terms of the deal include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran move closer to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators • Terms of the deal include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran move closer to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators • Terms of the deal include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran move closer to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators • Terms of the deal include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran move closer to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators • Terms of the deal include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a peace deal within 24 hours, after negotiators approved a draft proposal to end fighting on all fronts, The Washington Times reports, citing a source close to the talks. The deal still requires final approval from both governments.
The U.S. and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a peace deal within 24 hours, after negotiators approved a draft proposal to end fighting on all fronts, The Washington Times reports, citing a source close to the talks. The deal still requires final approval from both governments.
The U.S. and Iran are expected to announce the finalization of a peace deal within 24 hours, after negotiators approved a draft proposal to end fighting on all fronts, The Washington Times reports, citing a source close to the talks. The deal still requires final approval from both governments.
Latest developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, according to the Financial Times: The US and Iran are close to extending the ceasefire for 60 days The ceasefire extension will include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will ease the blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will agree to ease sanctions imposed on Iran
Latest developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, according to the Financial Times: The US and Iran are close to extending the ceasefire for 60 days The ceasefire extension will include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will ease the blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will agree to ease sanctions imposed on Iran
Latest developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, according to the Financial Times: The US and Iran are close to extending the ceasefire for 60 days The ceasefire extension will include the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will ease the blockade on Iranian ports in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Washington will agree to ease sanctions imposed on Iran
“There is a chance that, whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple of days, we may have something to say.” • • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there is a chance Iran could accept a deal as soon as Saturday to help end the conflict in the Middle East, expressing hope for “good news.”
“There is a chance that, whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple of days, we may have something to say.” • • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there is a chance Iran could accept a deal as soon as Saturday to help end the conflict in the Middle East, expressing hope for “good news.”
Something happened in the skies yesterday that nobody officially explained. • • Iran closed its western airspace and went on high alert. Fighter jets scrambled on both sides. Israeli aircraft tracked over Syria and Iraq. Refueling tankers up from Israel. GPS jamming spiked across Israel, the UAE, and the Gulf simultaneously. • • No strike. No announcement. No explanation. • • Two theories. • • 1. Israel was mapping Iranian air defenses in real time. When Iran activates systems to track incoming jets, their radar signatures, locations, response times get recorded. The next strike package knows exactly where to hit first. • • 2. It was a message. Accept the deal by the weekend or this is what the opening hour looks like. • • Iran has a memorandum of understanding drafted and waiting for Washington's signature. Trump is at the White House instead of Bedminster. The ships are loaded. • • Yesterday wasn't a drill for the cameras. It was either intelligence collection or a very loud knock on the door. • • Iran heard it either way.
Something happened in the skies yesterday that nobody officially explained. • • Iran closed its western airspace and went on high alert. Fighter jets scrambled on both sides. Israeli aircraft tracked over Syria and Iraq. Refueling tankers up from Israel. GPS jamming spiked across Israel, the UAE, and the Gulf simultaneously. • • No strike. No announcement. No explanation. • • Two theories. • • 1. Israel was mapping Iranian air defenses in real time. When Iran activates systems to track incoming jets, their radar signatures, locations, response times get recorded. The next strike package knows exactly where to hit first. • • 2. It was a message. Accept the deal by the weekend or this is what the opening hour looks like. • • Iran has a memorandum of understanding drafted and waiting for Washington's signature. Trump is at the White House instead of Bedminster. The ships are loaded. • • Yesterday wasn't a drill for the cameras. It was either intelligence collection or a very loud knock on the door. • • Iran heard it either way.
Something happened in the skies yesterday that nobody officially explained. • • Iran closed its western airspace and went on high alert. Fighter jets scrambled on both sides. Israeli aircraft tracked over Syria and Iraq. Refueling tankers up from Israel. GPS jamming spiked across Israel, the UAE, and the Gulf simultaneously. • • No strike. No announcement. No explanation. • • Two theories. • • 1. Israel was mapping Iranian air defenses in real time. When Iran activates systems to track incoming jets, their radar signatures, locations, response times get recorded. The next strike package knows exactly where to hit first. • • 2. It was a message. Accept the deal by the weekend or this is what the opening hour looks like. • • Iran has a memorandum of understanding drafted and waiting for Washington's signature. Trump is at the White House instead of Bedminster. The ships are loaded. • • Yesterday wasn't a drill for the cameras. It was either intelligence collection or a very loud knock on the door. • • Iran heard it either way.
U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with nuclear framework, FT reports
U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with nuclear framework, FT reports
U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with nuclear framework, FT reports
U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with nuclear framework, FT reports
U.S. and Iran are closing in on a 60-day ceasefire extension with nuclear framework, FT reports
Report: US and Iran may reach final agreement on memorandum of understanding to end war within 48 hours @zeke_korn
US and Iran near agreement to extend ceasefire by 60 days, FT reports.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).
Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.