How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 408 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21 - 196 vessels transited Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 vessels southbound over the 10-day period - More than 40 commercial vessels of various types transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily - The number of vessels transiting Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 since the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10 - Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels - The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or an insecurity in the waterway
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.