How low will Trump's approval rating go by end of May?
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This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Trump’s Approval Rating Still Below 40% As Half Of Republicans Blame Trump For High Gas Prices. • Trump had a 36% approval rating in the latest poll released Monday.
As his approval rating sinks, Trump adds to his lengthy list of distractions
Trump’s Streak Of Record-Low Approval Ratings Grows Longer—As More Republicans Disapprove Of Iran War, Economy. • Trump had a 37% approval rating in the latest poll released Wednesday.
#VIDEO | US President Donald Trump's approval rating falls to 34%, the lowest level of his second term. Researchers at the Pew Research Center link this decline to widespread public rejection of the war against Iran, its immigration policies, and tariffs. The perception of Trump's integrity also declined sharply.
Trump's approval rating fell to a record low of 33%.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 28 and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for May 31 is not published by June 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.