Houthis successfully target shipping on...?July 28
ResolvedOutcome: No$7Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
A Saudi-flagged oil tanker, NCC GHAZAL, was reportedly struck by Houthi forces on July 28. • • In the weeks before, the vessel showed high-risk Red Sea behavior, including a 7-day AIS blackout off the Yemen coast, multiple ship-to-ship transfers, and repeated destination changes. It went dark again on July 23 and hasn't transmitted since. • • Windward's risk models flagged the vessel as a likely target two days before the strike. Behavior tells the story first.
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Houthis successfully target shipping on...? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.