Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins (2 week pause)

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 24% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .

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November 30aljazeera.com92%match18¢-39%
Live: Houthis say they have not carried out any operations targeting Saudi Arabia today
November 15aljazeera.com92%match9¢-44%
Live: Houthis say they have not carried out any operations targeting Saudi Arabia today
The Houthis' continued military escalation in Yemen and attacks against Saudi Arabia must end immediately. The EU expresses its full solidarity with the legitimate Government of Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and their people.
October 31aa_arabic91%match85¢+18%
Arab airlines suspend flights to Riyadh airport following Houthi attacks Gulf Air: Flights canceled until October 17 Qatar Airways: Flights temporarily suspended to Riyadh and Dammam Etihad Airways: All Riyadh flights canceled until next Monday, in addition to flights to Dammam and Jeddah The airport, which is the second busiest in the Kingdom after Jeddah, temporarily suspended operations on Saturday following a Houthi attack that killed 13 people and injured more than 300. The airport was subjected to another attack on Sunday, which resulted in one death and injuries to more than 10 others.
October 31iranintl92%match85¢+18%
Reuters reported on Monday, October 10 that several international airlines have canceled or suspended their flights to Saudi Arabia following attacks by the Islamic Republic-backed Houthi rebels on Riyadh airport. According to the report, Air France-KLM has extended the suspension of flights to and from Riyadh until November 24, and Lufthansa Group has canceled all its flights to the city until October 15. Etihad Airways has suspended all its flights to Saudi Arabia until October 21, and Indian airline IndiGo has suspended flights to Riyadh and Dammam until October 23.
October 31alaraby.co.uk92%match93¢+8%
AFP, citing a regional source: Saudi Arabia rules out a truce or ceasefire with the Houthis before the Yemeni government regains lost territory.
October 31iranintl91%match93¢+8%
Reuters reported on Thursday, October 6 that German airline Lufthansa has canceled its flights to Riyadh until October 14, and Air India has canceled its flights to and from the Saudi capital until October 18. The decision was announced at the same time as the Yemeni Houthi rebels, backed by the Islamic Republic, intensified attacks on Saudi airports and infrastructure. The Houthis announced that they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile.
October 15iranintl91%match95¢+5%
Reuters reported on Thursday, October 6 that German airline Lufthansa has canceled its flights to Riyadh until October 14, and Air India has canceled its flights to and from the Saudi capital until October 18. The decision was announced at the same time as the Yemeni Houthi rebels, backed by the Islamic Republic, intensified attacks on Saudi airports and infrastructure. The Houthis announced that they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count. This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia or Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters, and “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia or Yemen respectively as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.

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