US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
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Market pricing makes US imports Russian diesel by October 31? the favorite at 42%, as of .
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International Oil Analyst: Washington's Permit to Russia Means Strait of Hormuz Won't Open Anytime Soon Windward's AI-powered maritime cargo tracking shows that the first Russian diesel shipment heading to the US East Coast is likely to arrive within 72 hours. But shipping analyst Michele Wiese Bookman, who specializes in tanker tracking and the trade of sanctioned oil, says the US permit to Russia means no one expects freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to be restored anytime soon. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: Trump: We told Zelensky to do whatever you want with Russia, but don't hit its refineries, but that's exactly what he did We have a global problem, and it's a shortage of diesel refineries. So what does he do? He goes and attacks refineries.
@Farsna]
Russia partially lifts diesel fuel embargo following agreement with US, enabling it to supply 500,000 tons to the global market.
Following an agreement between Moscow and Washington, Russia eases restrictions on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons to reach global markets. The Russian government announced the partial lifting of the ban on diesel exports, allowing the supply of 500,000 tons to global markets in the first phase, as part of an understanding reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, Donald Trump. In a statement, the Russian government said the decision took effect on Saturday, explaining that Russian oil companies will begin concluding export contracts with foreign buyers in coordination with the government. For his part, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that the decision will not negatively affect consumers in the domestic market.
Although the "Trump-Putin agreement" on releasing part of Russia's diesel capacity in favor of the United States has more of a "psychological aspect" than a "real impact on the market," Putin must be given credit; he also acts based on his country's interests!
It is our mistake to consider "Putin" a strategic partner!
Footnote: Russia does not benefit much financially from the recent sale of diesel to the United States because:
1. Russian refineries have had a high percentage of failures in recent months and have no or little production.
2. Russia has a law against exporting fuel during wartime and cannot export more than a certain amount. 3. Winter is very close in a cold country like Russia!
The Russian-US deal to supply diesel fuel from Russia to the global market demonstrates the naivety of EU politicians, said Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. He noted that as a reward for its hateful military policy, sanctions, and "moralizing," the EU will receive expensive diesel fuel and a shortage of it, while Russia and the US will have cheap fuel. Earlier, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, stated that in response to the Russian-US agreement on diesel fuel supplies, the European Union will approve the largest package of sanctions against Russia since 2022. The day before, Putin and Trump held telephone talks. According to the American president, the parties agreed to deliver Russian diesel fuel in several stages - 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and another 1 million tons later.
Top news by the evening of October 10th. In brief: Donald Trump said that Ukraine needs a new president. Russian authorities partially lifted the ban on diesel fuel exports. The Ukrainian delegation refused to continue negotiations with the United States in Miami. Melania Trump expressed her readiness to join in providing assistance to the Aleshki village. Rospotrebnadzor banned the import of Nabeglavi and cola produced in Georgia. The Moscow City Court released the intermediary in the case of bulletproof vests for the Ministry of Defense. The international airport in Riyadh was temporarily closed after the attack. More news digests are on our channel in "Max".
Top news by the evening of October 10th. In brief: Donald Trump said that Ukraine needs a new president. Russian authorities partially lifted the ban on diesel fuel exports. The Ukrainian delegation refused to continue negotiations with the United States in Miami. Melania Trump expressed her readiness to join in providing assistance to the Aleshki. Rospotrebnadzor banned the import of Nabeglavi and cola produced in Georgia. The Moscow City Court released the intermediary in the case of bulletproof vests for the Ministry of Defense. The international airport in Riyadh was temporarily closed after the attack.
(Iraq's Al Sharqiya) Trump and Putin agree to supply global markets with Russian diesel: 300,000 tons to be supplied immediately and another 500,000 tons during November.
The Russian government has partially lifted the ban on diesel fuel exports as part of the Putin-Trump agreement.
The first U.S.-bound cargo of Russian diesel is about to arrive, although it won’t do be significant in fixing the shortage it’s tied to. • • On Oct 9, the U.S. issued General License No. 135, temporarily allowing Russian diesel/gasoil imports until April 2027. A tanker carrying ~280,000 barrels (per @Vortexa), loaded at St. Petersburg Sept 21, is due on the U.S. East Coast within 48-72 hours. • • Russia’s own diesel exports collapsed to 190,000 bpd in Q3, down from 690,000 bpd in Q2 and 850,000 bpd in Q1, after refinery strikes and new export bans. And Russian diesel on the water or in floating storage now sits at 10.5 million barrels, against a three-year average of 17 million, Vortexa data shows. • • The 6-month license duration suggests that the U.S. administration doesn't see freedom on navigation being restored to the Strait of Hormuz in the near future.
The Russian news agency, quoting the Russian government, announced that a decision will take effect today allowing the release of 500,000 tons of diesel to global markets.
The Russian government: Partial lifting of the diesel export ban following an agreement between Presidents Putin and Trump, allowing the export of 500,000 tons. #Russia
The US discussed asset unfreezing and a deal with LUKOIL with Moscow. Kyiv learned of this after the fact and was stunned — New York Times. While Ukraine is seeking security guarantees, Washington, according to the newspaper, was discussing completely different guarantees with Russia — economic incentives for the sake of peace. The list of proposals: unfreezing of Russian assets;
a multi-billion dollar deal with LUKOIL's foreign assets;
export of Belarusian potash fertilizers. The Russian side has not yet confirmed such discussions. NYT reports that Ukrainian representatives were stunned by the turn of events; they did not learn of these plans until the end of September. Zelensky, according to journalists, feels betrayed after the agreement on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation has already partially lifted the ban on diesel exports: "The decision was made in pursuance of the agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. It comes into force on October 10 and will allow 500 thousand tons of diesel fuel to be sent to the world market at this stage," the government said in a statement. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak emphasized that this will not affect the interests of Russian consumers. Production volumes make it possible to fully satisfy both the domestic market and supply the specified volumes to the world market. Subscribe to Zvezdanews
The US discussed asset unfreezing and a deal with LUKOIL with Moscow. Kyiv learned of this after the fact and was stunned — The New York Times. While Ukraine is seeking security guarantees, Washington, according to the newspaper, was discussing completely different guarantees with Russia — economic incentives for the sake of peace. The list of proposals: unfreezing of Russian assets;
a multi-billion dollar deal with LUKOIL's foreign assets;
export of Belarusian potash fertilizers. The Russian side has not yet confirmed such discussions. The NYT reports that Ukrainian representatives were stunned by the turn of events; they did not learn of these plans until the end of September. Zelensky, according to journalists, feels betrayed after the agreement on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to world markets. Meanwhile, Russia has already partially lifted the ban on diesel exports: "The decision was made in fulfillment of the agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. It comes into force on October 10 and will allow 500,000 tons of diesel fuel to be sent to the world market at this stage," the government statement said. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak emphasized that this will not affect the interests of Russian consumers. Production volumes allow us to fully supply both the domestic market and the world market in the specified volumes. Zvezdanews in MAX [in reply to: Putin issued a statement after a conversation with Trump. Zvezdanews in MAX]
Live: Russian government confirms partial lifting of diesel export ban
Russia: Government: Partial lifting of the ban on diesel exports following an agreement between Presidents Putin and Trump, allowing the export of 500,000 tons
What is this event about?
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.
Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.
To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.