First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Gold just reached a new all time high of $4,383
Gold hits seven-week high on safe-haven demand; silver notches peak
Gold's remonetization is no longer fringe, with CNBC openly discussing it
$GLD Bulls have arrived
Gold holdings in exchange-traded funds climbed to a month-end peak, a sign that investor inflows are continuing to add fuel to bullion’s scorching rally
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Gold" if, between October 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 per troy ounce during regular trading hours before Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds that same price according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT.
This market will resolve to "ETH" if, within that same timeframe, Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT before the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds that same price per troy ounce during regular trading hours.
If neither Gold nor Ethereum reach $5,000.00 within this market's timeframe, or if they reach that price at the exact same moment, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for Gold prices will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).
The resolution source Ethereum prices is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Note: This market's resolution is based specifically on the listed resolution sources, not according to other sources or spot markets.