Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
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Colombia is witnessing a heated presidential race amid rising fortunes for leftist candidate Iván Cepeda.
Polls show left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda leading his rivals in Colombia's presidential election.
The Historical Pact of Colombia, with its candidate Iván Cepeda, is gaining ground in the polls ahead of the upcoming presidential elections on May 31. Colombian journalist Antonio Morales details in this first broadcast of #PulsoElectoral that Cepeda's most important task is to strengthen his government proposal and consolidate his leadership against the far-right candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who are supported by Álvaro Uribe Vélez.
#VIDEO | Iván Cepeda vs. the far right: Dispute over the future of Colombia | ELECTORAL PULSE by Antonio Morales. The Historical Pact of Colombia, with its candidate Iván Cepeda, is gaining ground in the polls ahead of the upcoming presidential elections on May 31. In this first edition of #PulsoElectoral, Colombian journalist Antonio Morales details that Cepeda's most important task is to strengthen his government proposal and consolidate his leadership against the far-right candidates Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella, who are supported by Álvaro Uribe Vélez. The Colombian left, with great prospects, seeks to advance in the consolidation of the country, and of Latin America, with the leadership of Iván Cepeda to give continuity to the transformation, initiated with Gustavo Petro and the Historical Pact in Colombia. #Colombia #PresidentialElections #HistoricPact #ElectoralPulse #IvánCepeda
Colombia is preparing for the upcoming presidential elections on May 31, with Iván Cepeda emerging as a frontrunner in the polls. One of the political forces gaining strength is the alliance between Cepeda and Aída Quilcué, which is showing increasing support according to various polls conducted among Colombians ahead of the presidential elections.
Colombia is preparing for the upcoming presidential elections on May 31, with Iván Cepeda emerging as a frontrunner in the polls. One of the political forces gaining strength is the alliance between Cepeda and Aída Quilcué, which is showing increasing support according to various polls conducted among Colombians ahead of the presidential elections.
Colombia is preparing for the upcoming presidential elections on May 31, with Iván Cepeda emerging as a frontrunner in the polls. One of the political forces gaining strength is the alliance between Cepeda and Aída Quilcué, which is showing increasing support according to various polls conducted among Colombians ahead of the presidential elections.
Iván Cepeda, of the Historical Pact, leads the polls in Colombia's presidential elections with 36 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia follow, but 50 percent plus one is needed to win in the first round. Find more information on our website:
Iván Cepeda, of the Historical Pact, leads the polls in Colombia's presidential elections with 36 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia follow, but 50 percent plus one is needed to win in the first round. Find more information on our website:
Iván Cepeda, of the Historical Pact, leads the polls in Colombia's presidential elections with 36 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia follow, but 50 percent plus one is needed to win in the first round. Find more information on our website:
Iván Cepeda, of the Historical Pact, leads the polls in Colombia's presidential elections with 36 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia follow, but 50 percent plus one is needed to win in the first round. Find more information on our website:
Iván Cepeda, of the Historical Pact, leads the polls in Colombia's presidential elections with 36 percent. Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia follow, but 50 percent plus one is needed to win in the first round. Find more information on our website:
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls in Colombia Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the Historical Pact, the party of current Colombian President Gustavo Petro, consolidates his first place in voting intention with 44.3%, his best result in this campaign, according to a recent Invamer poll. The polling firm indicated that Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since February. Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, remains in second place with 21.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing opposition party Democratic Center, with 19.8%. The poll forecasts suggest that, in a potential runoff election, Cepeda would win against both De la Espriella (54.6% to 42.6%) and Valencia (51.2% to 46.6%). The survey was conducted among 3,826 people between April 15 and 24, with a margin of error of 2%.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls in Colombia Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the Historical Pact, the party of current Colombian President Gustavo Petro, consolidates his first place in voting intention with 44.3%, his best result in this campaign, according to a recent Invamer poll. The polling firm indicated that Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since February. Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, remains in second place with 21.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing opposition party Democratic Center, with 19.8%. The poll forecasts suggest that, in a potential runoff election, Cepeda would win against both De la Espriella (54.6% to 42.6%) and Valencia (51.2% to 46.6%). The survey was conducted among 3,826 people between April 15 and 24, with a margin of error of 2%.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls in Colombia Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the Historical Pact, the party of current Colombian President Gustavo Petro, consolidates his first place in voting intention with 44.3%, his best result in this campaign, according to a recent Invamer poll. The polling firm indicated that Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since February. Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, remains in second place with 21.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing opposition party Democratic Center, with 19.8%. The poll forecasts suggest that, in a potential runoff election, Cepeda would win against both De la Espriella (54.6% to 42.6%) and Valencia (51.2% to 46.6%). The survey was conducted among 3,826 people between April 15 and 24, with a margin of error of 2%.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls in Colombia Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the Historical Pact, the party of current Colombian President Gustavo Petro, consolidates his first place in voting intention with 44.3%, his best result in this campaign, according to a recent Invamer poll. The polling firm indicated that Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since February. Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, remains in second place with 21.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing opposition party Democratic Center, with 19.8%. The poll forecasts suggest that, in a potential runoff election, Cepeda would win against both De la Espriella (54.6% to 42.6%) and Valencia (51.2% to 46.6%). The survey was conducted among 3,826 people between April 15 and 24, with a margin of error of 2%.
Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls in Colombia Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate for the Historical Pact, the party of current Colombian President Gustavo Petro, consolidates his first place in voting intention with 44.3%, his best result in this campaign, according to a recent Invamer poll. The polling firm indicated that Cepeda's support rose 7.2 percentage points since February. Abelardo de la Espriella, of the far-right movement Defenders of the Homeland, remains in second place with 21.5%, followed by Paloma Valencia, of the right-wing opposition party Democratic Center, with 19.8%. The poll forecasts suggest that, in a potential runoff election, Cepeda would win against both De la Espriella (54.6% to 42.6%) and Valencia (51.2% to 46.6%). The survey was conducted among 3,826 people between April 15 and 24, with a margin of error of 2%.
Colombia’s ruling left set to extend time in power as Cepeda leads, poll shows
Colombia’s ruling left set to extend time in power as Cepeda leads, poll shows
Colombia’s ruling left set to extend time in power as Cepeda leads, poll shows
Colombia’s ruling left set to extend time in power as Cepeda leads, poll shows
What is this event about?
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.