CA-04 Primary Winners
Resolved8as of
This hub tracks 8 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Mike Thompson:
The centrist Blue Dog Coalition's PAC is reserving nearly $700,000 in ad buys in CA-04, per @AdImpact_Pol, likely to protect Blue Dog Rep. Mike Thomson. • • Thompson is facing a well-funded primary challenge from former venture capitalist Eric Jones:
What is this event about?
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.