Berlin State Election Winner

OpenOutcomes24as of

Market pricing makes Linke the favorite at 61% across 24 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

CDU28%
AfD9%
SPD2%
BSW0%
FDP0%
FW0%

What moved the odds?

17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

AfDwelt.de94%match11¢-18%
AfD significantly widens gap with CDU/CSU in poll – Greens and SPD mathematically secure seats in state parliament
CDUwelt.de95%match31¢-10%
Berlin: Election thriller – poll suddenly shows CDU narrowly ahead of the Left Party, glimmer of hope for the SPD
SPDwelt.de94%match3¢-33%
Berlin: Election thriller – poll suddenly shows CDU narrowly ahead of the Left Party, glimmer of hope for the SPD
AfDNOTUS Reporter93%match17¢-47%
AfD Opens 20-Point Lead a Month Before Crucial State Elections •
CDUwelt.de97%match27¢+4%
Berlin poll: CDU politician far ahead – Left Party candidate 7 points behind her party
CDUwelt.de93%match72¢
The Left Party is in the lead in Berlin – the CDU is not benefiting from the change of candidates.
AfDelonmusk92%match23¢-61%
BREAKING: Germany's Anti-Immigration party the AfD have topped a poll in liberal/left leaning BERLIN for the FIRST TIME EVER • • This is unprecedented • Remigration is inevitable
AfDwelt.de95%match17¢-47%
A poll shows the AfD in the lead in Berlin for the first time – the SPD is far behind in fifth place.
SPDwelt.de94%match95¢+3%
A poll shows the AfD in the lead in Berlin for the first time – the SPD is far behind in fifth place.
AfDbild.de96%match14¢-36%
New poll: AfD now also leads in Berlin
AfDbild.de91%match13¢-31%
AfD still in the lead: This is how Germans would vote now
CDUwelt.de95%match74¢-3%
CDU gains significantly in poll after Wegner's resignation – Left Party clearly in first place in Berlin
CDUwelt.de99%match86¢-16%
"The CDU is afraid of a red Berlin, of a left-wing mayor"
CDUwelt.de99%match75¢-4%
Berlin CDU schedules crisis meeting for Friday
SPDwelt.de99%match8¢-75%
Berlin SPD announces "rent police" with 100 inspectors
AfDzerohedge98%match9¢
"Far-Right" AfD Party Makes Historic Gains In German State Elections
SPDwelt.de99%match94¢+4%
SPD defeat looms – Green Party candidate ahead of Reiter in mayoral election

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

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