Berlin State Election WinnerAfD
Open$2.4Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 9% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES9¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
AfD significantly widens gap with CDU/CSU in poll – Greens and SPD mathematically secure seats in state parliament
AfD Opens 20-Point Lead a Month Before Crucial State Elections •
BREAKING: Germany's Anti-Immigration party the AfD have topped a poll in liberal/left leaning BERLIN for the FIRST TIME EVER • • This is unprecedented • Remigration is inevitable
A poll shows the AfD in the lead in Berlin for the first time – the SPD is far behind in fifth place.
New poll: AfD now also leads in Berlin
AfD still in the lead: This is how Germans would vote now
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
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See all outcomes for Berlin State Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.