Bank of Canada Decision in July?
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This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Live: Bank of Canada leaves interest rates unchanged
Live: Bank of Canada leaves interest rates unchanged
Bank of Canada keeps policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%
Bank of Canada keeps policy interest rate unchanged at 2.25%
*BANK OF CANADA LEAVES KEY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25%
*BANK OF CANADA LEAVES KEY RATE AT 2.25%; EST. 2.25%
Bank of Canada Holds O/N Interest Rate at 2.25 PCT
Bank of Canada Holds O/N Interest Rate at 2.25 PCT
Bank of Canada Holds O/N Interest Rate at 2.25 PCT
The market strongly favors no change.
RPT-POLL-Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in 2026 as inflation risks appear contained
RPT-POLL-Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in 2026 as inflation risks appear contained
POLL-Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in 2026 as inflation risks appear contained
POLL-Bank of Canada to hold rates steady in 2026 as inflation risks appear contained
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.