Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Resolved5as of
This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero. AIS data from MarineTraffic shows no vessel transits in the past 24 hours. The pre-Operation Epic Fury average was 130 per day.
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero. AIS data from MarineTraffic shows no vessel transits in the past 24 hours. The pre-Operation Epic Fury average was 130 per day.
A review of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from over the past 24 hours indicates 0 commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically vital maritime chokepoints. Prior to the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th, the average number of vessels transiting the Strait was 130.
Before the war in the Middle East, about 3,000 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz every month, CNN reported, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence. After the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to most international shipping. This decision led to a sharp decline in shipping volumes through the route. According to Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera, only 162 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026. In April, as CNN reports, citing Kpler, this figure increased slightly to 191. Thus, since the beginning of the war, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by approximately 95%. How shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued after the war—in RBC's infographic in Max.
Prediction markets give less than even odds on Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June
Polymarket currently say there is less than a 50% chance the ends its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of next month
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.