Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed
Resolved2as of
This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
No directional matched news signals are available across this event yet.
What is this event about?
On March 5, 2026, the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) formally designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk to national security, effectively barring the Department of Defense and its contractors from collaborating with Anthropic. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-informed-anthropic-it-is-supply-chain-risk-official-says-2026-03-05/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the designation is officially rescinded, withdrawn, or nullified by a competent authority by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The designation may be removed through executive reversal, agency reversal, or a final court ruling.
Executive actions or guidance that merely bypass the designation, allowing U.S. agencies to continue using Anthropic’s AI despite the supply chain risk label, will not qualify.
Court rulings that strike down or invalidate the designation as unlawful will qualify. Court orders that only temporarily block, stay, or enjoin the designation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.