Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

ResolvedOutcomes5as of

This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

30%+100%
35%+100%
45%+0%
55%+0%
50%+0%

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

35%+Breaking91198%match7¢-100%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: Trump orders all Government agencies to stop using Anthropic products. 97% chance Claude is banned.
45%+Breaking91198%match55¢+82%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: Trump orders all Government agencies to stop using Anthropic products. 97% chance Claude is banned.
35%+Polymarket98%match5¢-100%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 17% chance the Department of War bans Claude. >
45%+Polymarket98%match53¢+89%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 17% chance the Department of War bans Claude. >
30%+*Walter Bloomberg98%match1¢-100%
ANTHROPIC: INTRODUCING CLAUDE SONNET 4.6 - WEBSITE
35%+*Walter Bloomberg98%match98¢+2%
ANTHROPIC: INTRODUCING CLAUDE SONNET 4.6 - WEBSITE

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

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