Alaska At-Large Primary Winners
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Market pricing makes John Williams the favorite at 90% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
HOUSE • • All four winners have been projected. They include incumbent Rep. Nick Begich, independent candidate Bill Hill, and two Democrats - Matt Schultz, who withdrew from the race, and perennial candidate Eric Hafner. • •
Decision Desk HQ projects Matt Schultz wins the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:12 AM EDT
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 53,078 (47.1%) • Bill Hill (N): 34,470 (30.6%) • Matt Schultz (D): 9,104 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 4,230 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 53,078 (47.1%) • Bill Hill (N): 34,470 (30.6%) • Matt Schultz (D): 9,104 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 4,230 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 53,078 (47.1%) • Bill Hill (N): 34,470 (30.6%) • Matt Schultz (D): 9,104 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 4,230 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
Decision Desk HQ projects Matt Schultz wins the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:12 AM EDT
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 40,419 (47.8%) • Bill Hill (N): 24,937 (29.5%) • Matt Schultz (D): 6,805 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 3,188 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 40,419 (47.8%) • Bill Hill (N): 24,937 (29.5%) • Matt Schultz (D): 6,805 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 3,188 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 40,419 (47.8%) • Bill Hill (N): 24,937 (29.5%) • Matt Schultz (D): 6,805 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 3,188 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 61% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 40,419 (47.8%) • Bill Hill (N): 24,937 (29.5%) • Matt Schultz (D): 6,805 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 3,188 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
Bill HillIndependent Bill Hill has advanced in the race for Alaska’s at-large House seat, challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich III, Decision Desk HQ projects. Hill, a Bristol Bay fisherman, advanced alongside Begich in Alaska’s open primary system — in which the top four vote-getters advance from the primary, regardless of party, to a ranked-choice general…98%match98¢+2%
Independent Bill Hill advances in race for Alaska’s GOP-held House seat
Republican U.S. Rep Nick Begich III to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - AP Projects
Independent Bill Hill to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - NBC Projects
Republican U.S. Rep Nick Begich III to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - NBC Projects
Independent Bill Hill to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - AP Projects
Live: Independent Bill Hill advances from primary for Alaska’s lone US House seat
Independent Bill Hill to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - Ddhq Projects
Republican U.S. Rep Nick Begich III to Advance to General Election for Alaska’s Only U.S. House Seat - Ddhq Projects
Live: Republican US Rep. Nick Begich advances from primary for Alaska’s lone US House seat
Decision Desk HQ projects Nick Begich and Bill Hill win the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:00 AM EDT
Decision Desk HQ projects Nick Begich and Bill Hill win the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:00 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Independent Bill Hill advances to the general election for U.S. House in Alaska's at-large Congressional District
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Nick Begich advances to the general election for U.S. House in Alaska's at-large Congressional District
Live: WASHINGTON (AP) — Independent Bill Hill advances to the general election for U.S. House in Alaska’s at-large Congressional District
Live: WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Nick Begich advances to the general election for U.S. House in Alaska’s at-large Congressional District
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 20,856 (46.0%) • Bill Hill (N): 13,915 (30.7%) • Matt Schultz (D): 3,777 (8.3%) • Eric Hafner (D): 1,822 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 20,856 (46.0%) • Bill Hill (N): 13,915 (30.7%) • Matt Schultz (D): 3,777 (8.3%) • Eric Hafner (D): 1,822 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 20,856 (46.0%) • Bill Hill (N): 13,915 (30.7%) • Matt Schultz (D): 3,777 (8.3%) • Eric Hafner (D): 1,822 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 33% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 20,856 (46.0%) • Bill Hill (N): 13,915 (30.7%) • Matt Schultz (D): 3,777 (8.3%) • Eric Hafner (D): 1,822 (4.0%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Alaska also features competitive races for governor and its sole House seat. A host of Republicans and two prominent Democrats are vying to succeed Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who is term limited. In the House race, the matchup is likely to be set between Representative Nick Begich, a Republican, and Bill Hill, a commercial fisherman and educator running as an independent.
What is this event about?
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.