Alaska At-Large Primary WinnersMatt Schultz
Open$11Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
HOUSE • • All four winners have been projected. They include incumbent Rep. Nick Begich, independent candidate Bill Hill, and two Democrats - Matt Schultz, who withdrew from the race, and perennial candidate Eric Hafner. • •
Decision Desk HQ projects Matt Schultz wins the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:12 AM EDT
DDHQ Race Update (est. 81% in): Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • Nick Begich (R): 53,078 (47.1%) • Bill Hill (N): 34,470 (30.6%) • Matt Schultz (D): 9,104 (8.1%) • Eric Hafner (D): 4,230 (3.8%) • • Follow more results here: •
Decision Desk HQ projects Matt Schultz wins the Alaska US House At-Large Primary • • #DecisionMade: 1:12 AM EDT
Matt Schultz suspends his campaign for U.S. House in Alaska, endorses Bill Hill
Where does the news lean?
6YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Alaska At-Large Primary Winners — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.