2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
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This hub tracks 4 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
June 2026 was the hottest June on record in Western Europe – Copernicus
Western Europe Had Its Hottest June on Record
June was the hottest on record for Western Europe, second hottest globally
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 versus the data points available for all other Junes on record.
Note: If June 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.