What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?↑ $4,700

OpenVol$263KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES1¢
NO99¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESmoney.udn.com91%match72¢-99%
Gold prices climbed to $4,650, with Chinese banks bullish on Asian buying support.
YESmoney.udn.com97%match72¢-99%
Gold prices accelerated their rise, approaching $4,700 intraday. The market is eyeing the next key level: "this price point."
YEStass.ru93%match96¢-99%
TASS: GOLD FUTURES EXCEEDED $4,750 PER TROY OUNCE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 11, 2026 - COMEX DATA
YESSemi-Official YJC News Agency93%match74¢-99%
Gold futures price crosses $4,700 per ounce for the first time since May 14 @YjcNewsChannel
YESmoney.udn.com95%match67¢-99%
Gold prices break through $4,600, hitting a three-month high; latest "target range" released.
YESIran Semi-Official Tasnim91%match59¢-98%
Gold on the rise; 34% growth in the past two months After falling at the beginning of the year, the global gold price has grown by 12% in the past two months and reached $4,600. At the same time, the free dollar has also increased by 21%; a combination that has brought the return of gold funds such as "Rose Bergamot" to 34%; higher than the dollar and the stock market. Market performance since the beginning of July: "Rose Bergamot" gold fund; 34% Free market dollar; 21% General stock market index; 19% Gold funds have become very popular among people these days, due to the possibility of buying and selling online and reliable physical support. See the tutorial on how to buy a gold fund here.
YESqq_timmy93%match58¢-98%
Precious Metals Commentary: Gold: Renewed Demand for Call Options Fuels Volatility and Upside Price Risk Demand for gold call options has surged due to renewed global macroeconomic policy hedging needs, creating a two-way mechanical amplifier for prices. When gold prices approach key strike prices, traders selling options are forced to buy gold to hedge, accelerating the rise; if gold prices pull back, traders unwind their hedges, increasing selling pressure and amplifying downside risk. This option-related hedging behavior significantly increases gold price volatility, reinforcing both upward and downward movements, becoming a key characteristic of the current market. Market confidence in further Fed rate hikes (a major headwind for gold since March) weakened significantly after the FOMC held rates steady in July and weak US employment and CPI data. This has driven a partial recovery in COMEX net speculative holdings and demand for rate-sensitive gold ETFs, helping gold prices rise by about 15% from mid-July lows, approaching $4,600 per ounce. Meanwhile, rising demand for call options further amplified this rebound, indicating that shifts in macroeconomic expectations are reinforcing the hedging effect of options. Goldman Sachs economists expect inflation to fall, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady and creating space for a recovery in Western investment demand. If Western investor demand picks up further, coupled with continued strong buying from central banks, gold prices could be pushed towards key strike price levels. At that point, traders buying gold to hedge call options could create a mechanical acceleration, further boosting price momentum. Goldman Sachs maintains its fair value forecast of $4,900 for gold by the end of 2026, but believes there are significant upside risks and increased volatility. This forecast assumes continued strong central bank demand and a recovery in private ETF demand under a Fed-held policy, but does not fully account for option hedging demand. If ETF inflows exceed expectations and call option positions remain high, trader hedging could push gold prices far higher than predicted; conversely, if expectations of interest rate hikes resurface, it could trigger a more drastic correction. Both risks need to be monitored. #gold

Where does the news lean?

17YES0NO5neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Sourcepythdata.app

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