What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?↓ $4,000
Open$74Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Thoughts on Gold from the JPM commodities desk: • • The Middle East backdrop remains opaque, and tariff headlines over the weekend have kept the macro risk premium elevated. With core PCE and Jackson Hole on deck this week, the pause in positioning is understandable. PCE will be particularly important. Research is looking for a relatively high print, and the market has so far been reluctant to fully price out a September Fed move—leaving rates sensitive to any upside inflation surprise and any shift in messaging from Jackson Hole. Trading think we trade in the $4,500/$5,000 range here, any hot data will see a retest of the 200dma. But on the contrary should we see cooler prints and the market is not convinced with the outcome of Jackson Hole, we might very well be trading closer to 5k next week. Given gold had gone $1,100 in 1 month in January, the desk doesn’t think that is outside the realm of possibility. Further, the negative data over the weekend hasn't really quenched the momentum in gold and we still trade decently higher on the day.
Gold didn't rise above $4,300 today by mere chance. This time, the reason isn't just the war, but the US economy. The US lost more than 23,000 jobs in July, reducing the chances of an interest rate hike. Gold began to recover as the dollar weakened. Hedge funds increased their bets on gold to their highest level in more than six months, while the Chinese central bank added 640,000 ounces for the 21st consecutive month. Despite all this, gold is still about 20% lower than its levels before the Iran war. So, where will gold's trajectory lead in the coming period?
@NoufHijazi_bn #AlArabiya_Business
Gold rises despite the calm between Iran and the US... Isn't that strange? The reason isn't gold, but the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced an agreement with Oman to open a temporary corridor, causing oil prices to fall and gold to jump above $4,300, its biggest gain in six months. Investors have changed their expectations from two interest rate hikes to just one. Kevin Warsh's policies make predictions difficult, but his nomination by Trump, who seeks low interest rates, keeps markets relatively calm. Will gold return to its historic highs above $5,000?
@mayaj_bn #Arabic_Business
Where does the news lean?
3YES17NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Related markets
See all outcomes for What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.