2026 World GDP Growth3.7%+
Open$1Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth of 3% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027, citing continued geopolitical uncertainty and its impact on the global economic outlook. The IMF also indicated that global inflation could accelerate to 4.7% in 2026 before declining to 3.9% in 2027, while lowering its forecast for average oil prices to around $78 per barrel in 2026. The IMF noted that artificial intelligence could mitigate the impact of shocks on global growth, but warned that accelerating disruptions to global trade could weaken growth and drive up prices. The Fund also anticipates a slowdown in global trade growth to 3.5% in 2026 before recovering to 4.3% in 2027, predicting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by mid-July and a return to pre-crisis levels by March. 2027 The IMF stressed that maintaining financial stability and orderly adjustment will be key factors in addressing shocks in the coming period, with geopolitical risks remaining elevated until 2027
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NONews99%match96¢+2%
The IMF projects global growth of 3.0% in 2026 (previous forecast: 3.1%), and has revised its forecast upward to 3.4% for 2027.
NONews99%match96¢+2%
The IMF SLIGHTLY CUT ITS GLOBAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST IN 2026 BY 0.1 PP TO 3% AND RAISED ITS INFLATION ESTIMATE BY 0.3 PP
IMF edges 2026 global growth forecast lower to 3%, sees rebound in 2027
NOReuters98%match96¢+2%
IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast for 2026 to 3.0% vs 3.1% in April, Raises 2027 Forecast to 3.4% vs 3.2%
Global Public Debt Is Approaching 100% of GDP for the First Time Since the Late 1940s • • • The IMF projects global public debt will surpass 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, a level last reached in the immediate aftermath of World War II when countries were financing reconstruction. • • • Government debt globally hit roughly $106.7 trillion at the end of 2025, up from $96.3 trillion a year earlier, with persistent fiscal deficits averaging around 5% of GDP as the primary driver. • • • The post-WWII debt spike came down rapidly through a combination of strong growth, inflation, and financial repression. None of those conditions exist today, with IMF projecting global growth of just 3.3% and interest rates structurally higher than the pre-pandemic era. • • • Around 80% of the global economy by GDP weight now has public debt that is both higher than pre-pandemic levels and rising at a faster pace, according to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor.
IMF Managing Director: Had it not been for the war, we would have raised our growth forecast to 3.3 percent in 2026, but all roads lead to slower growth.
Where does the news lean?
0YES8NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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