2026 World GDP Growth

OpenOutcomes9as of

Market pricing makes 3.1% the favorite at 30% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

3.1%30%
3.0%29%
≤2.9%18%
3.2%8%
3.6%4%
3.4%2%
3.3%1%
3.5%1%
3.7%+0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

3.1%sankei.com91%match30¢
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.0%sankei.com91%match71¢
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.2%sankei.com91%match89¢+3%
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.6%sankei.com91%match97¢-1%
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.3%sankei.com91%match99¢
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.7%+sankei.com92%match100¢
The IMF has revised its forecast upward for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, but the benefits of AI and other factors are polarized; Japan's forecast is 0.7%.
3.1%47news.jp94%match30¢
IMF forecasts global growth rate of 3.1% in 2026, revised upward; AI and rising energy prices create polarization.
3.7%+47news.jp92%match100¢
IMF revises 2026 global growth forecast upward to 3.1%; AI and rising energy prices create a polarization.
≤2.9%aa_arabic93%match34¢-47%
#Breaking | UNCTAD predicts global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, due to the oil shock (report)
3.2%aa_arabic92%match88¢+5%
#Breaking | UNCTAD predicts global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, due to the oil shock (report)
3.6%aa_arabic91%match96¢
#Breaking | UNCTAD predicts global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, due to the oil shock (report)
3.4%aa_arabic91%match98¢
#Breaking | UNCTAD predicts global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, due to the oil shock (report)
3.3%aa_arabic91%match99¢
#Breaking | UNCTAD predicts global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, due to the oil shock (report)
≤2.9%content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com93%match32¢-44%
UN agency: Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2026.
≤2.9%alarabytv95%match25¢-28%
Amid inflation and supply chain disruptions, how should we interpret the projected 2.9% global economic growth rate for 2026? Is it a sign of recovery or merely a disguised recession?
≤2.9%Reuters94%match24¢-25%
OECD Forecasts World 2026 Growth of 2.9% (vs 2.8% in June), 3.0% in 2027 (vs 3.1%)
3.1%spa.gov.sa96%match63¢+11%
Economic / IMF: Global growth is on track to reach 3% in 2026
3.0%spa.gov.sa96%match29¢
Economic / IMF: Global growth is on track to reach 3% in 2026
3.2%spa.gov.sa96%match88¢+5%
Economic / IMF: Global growth is on track to reach 3% in 2026
3.3%spa.gov.sa96%match97¢+2%
Economic / IMF: Global growth is on track to reach 3% in 2026
3.7%+spa.gov.sa97%match99¢+1%
Economic / IMF: Global growth is on track to reach 3% in 2026
3.0%Reuters93%match28¢+4%
IMF Says Global Growth Remains on Track to Reach About 3% in 2026, but Risks Remain High
3.0%Reuters93%match72¢-1%
Reuters Poll-Global Economy to Grow 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 (Same as April Poll)
≤2.9%Reuters93%match31¢-42%
Reuters Poll-Global Economy to Grow 2.9% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 (Same as April Poll)
≤2.9%zerohedge99%match17¢+6%
IMF Downgrades Global Growth Forecast Second Time In A Row
3.0%alarabiya_bn99%match26¢+12%
The International Monetary Fund predicts global economic growth of 3% in 2026 #Arabic_Business
3.1%iranintl99%match88¢-20%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 from 3.1 percent to 3 percent, citing lingering consequences of the energy shock caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran. The institution predicted that global inflation would reach 4.7 percent in 2026, adding that global economic growth is expected to increase to 3.4 percent in 2027 as tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
3.0%iranintl99%match27¢+7%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 from 3.1 percent to 3 percent, citing lingering consequences of the energy shock caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran. The institution predicted that global inflation would reach 4.7 percent in 2026, adding that global economic growth is expected to increase to 3.4 percent in 2027 as tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
3.1%Iran Semi-Official ILNA99%match88¢-20%
IMF report; Iran war shock; global economic growth outlook sharply down The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth outlook for this year, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. The fund predicts that the global economy will grow by just three percent in 2026.
3.0%Iran Semi-Official ILNA99%match40¢-28%
IMF report; Iran war shock; global economic growth outlook sharply down The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth outlook for this year, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. The fund predicts that the global economy will grow by just three percent in 2026.

What is this event about?

This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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