2026 World GDP Growth3.6%
Open$904as of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NONews99%match95¢+2%
The IMF SLIGHTLY CUT ITS GLOBAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST IN 2026 BY 0.1 PP TO 3% AND RAISED ITS INFLATION ESTIMATE BY 0.3 PP
The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3.1%, while maintaining its forecast for 2027 at 3.2%. This is stated in the updated version of the International Monetary Fund's report "World Economic Outlook". The revised forecast shows a slowdown in global economic growth, which is estimated at 3.4 percent in 2025.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest series of forecasts, warned that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a sharp decline in global economic growth, falling to levels only seen during the worst recessions of recent years.
IMF lowers global GDP growth forecast for 2026 due to Iranian conflict, prepares risk scenarios The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its January forecast for global GDP growth and global inflation in 2026 amid the Middle East conflict. Geopolitical uncertainty has forced the IMF to develop several forecast scenarios this time: a baseline scenario, which assumes a rapid normalization of the situation around Iran, and risk scenarios, which allow for the conflict to drag on or escalate. The worst-case scenario would push the global economy to the brink of recession, the IMF warns. RANGE FROM MILD SLOWDOWN TO RECESSION ...
World Bank President: If the ceasefire holds, we expect global growth to decline by 0.2-0.3 percentage points.
WORLD BANK PRESIDENT BANGA: EVEN IF CEASEFIRE HOLDS, GLOBAL GROWTH RATE SEEN DROPPING BY 0.2-0.3PPTS; BIT MORE IN EMS • • - INFLATION SEEN RISING UP TO 300BPS AS RESULT OF WAR, COULD BE 'MUCH HIGHER' IF CONFLICT CONTINUES • • - WAR IN MIDDLE EAST TO HAVE CASCADING IMPACT ON GLOBAL ECONOMY • • - WAR DAMAGE TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE HAS BEEN MANAGEABLE, BUT RESUMPTION OF ATTACKS COULD DEEPEN IMPACT ...
World Bank President Banga: Even If Ceasefire Holds, Global Growth Rate Seen Dropping By 0.2-0.3ppts; Bit More In EMS • • - Inflation Seen Rising Up To 300bps As Result Of War, Could Be 'Much Higher' If Conflict Continues • • - War In Middle East To Have Cascading Impact On Global Economy • • - War Damage To Energy Infrastructure Has Been Manageable, But Resumption Of Attacks Could Deepen Impact
IMF Managing Director: Had it not been for the war, we would have raised our growth forecast to 3.3 percent in 2026, but all roads lead to slower growth.
Where does the news lean?
0YES11NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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