Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?1.2m

OpenVol$11KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 71% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES71¢
NO29¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

YESIran State-Run Shana93%match73¢-3%
Venezuela's oil exports fell in September Shipping data showed that Venezuela's crude oil exports fell in September due to high sea transportation costs. Venezuela's daily crude oil exports to India fell from 297,000 barrels in August to 253,000 barrels in September, while the country's exports to Europe fell from 260,000 barrels to about 86,000 barrels. Venezuela announced in its report to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that its crude oil production in August reached 1.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from July, but higher than the amount produced in the same month last year. shana.ir/news/2982899 @Shananewsroom
YESSemi-Official YJC News Agency96%match73¢-3%
Venezuela's oil exports fell by about 9 percent in September to 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd) as a sharp rise in tanker costs forced traders to seek further discounts and delayed shipments from the country. Major global traders including Vitol and Trafigura have pressured Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA to negotiate better terms as shipping costs have squeezed their margins and tanker rerouting has added to shipping delays that have accumulated since the summer. Despite the overall decline in exports, the United States received more crude from Venezuela. Shipments to the United States rose from 553,000 bpd in August to 629,000 bpd in September. Exports to India fell from 297,000 barrels per day to 253,000 barrels per day during the same period, while purchases by European countries also fell sharply, from 260,000 barrels to 86,000 barrels per day. The American company Chevron exported about 283,000 barrels of oil per day from Venezuela, almost unchanged from August. Trading companies also moved 637,000 barrels per day of oil, an increase from 597,000 barrels the previous month. According to statistics submitted to OPEC, Venezuela produced about 1.2 million barrels per day of oil in August. Crude oil stockpiles at the Jose export terminal in September were down only slightly from higher levels earlier this year. The figures came as more than 250 companies traveled to Caracas to discuss the next round of Venezuelan oil development plans. Chevron has committed to investing more than $7 billion over five years and plans to more than double its production in Venezuela to about 600,000 barrels per day. Eni, Geopark and Continental Resources are also among the companies pursuing new projects or expansion plans. Research firm Rystad Energy estimates that Venezuela’s oil production could reach 1.6 million barrels per day by 2028 and 1.8 million barrels per day by 2030. But achieving that goal will require much more equipment and infrastructure. As of August, Venezuela had only two active drilling rigs. However, Rystad Energy estimates that about 50 rigs will be needed by 2028 and nearly 80 rigs by 2030 to maintain current production trends. The export sector is also facing its own challenges, according to Oil Price. Traders are demanding more discounts to offset high transportation costs, and congestion at ports has also caused several months of delays in shipping shipments. @YjcNewsChannel
YESArgus Reporter95%match72¢-1%
NEW: On #Venezuela’s oil production US @SecretaryWright told @CNBC, "today, it's over 1.2mn b/d. I think we'll be well over 1.5mn b/d by the first half of next year — and Venezuelan production will be over 2mn b/d by the end of this decade." #oott
YESWhite House Rapid Response97%match72¢-1%
.@SecretaryWright on Venezuelan oil production: "Today, it's over 1.2 million barrels/day. I think we'll be well over 1.5 million barrels/day by the first half of next year — and Venezuelan production will be over 2 million barrels/day by the end of this decade."
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV97%match68¢+4%
Venezuela's oil production surpassed 1.23 million barrels per day, its highest level since February 2019, reported acting president Delcy Rodríguez. Fifty new gas and oil agreements with private and international investment have been signed. The exchange rate gap has narrowed from 30% to 12.3%, and ECLAC projects GDP growth of 6.5% in 2026. What do you think of this progress? Tell us in the comments. #Venezuela #Oil #LatinEnergy #teleSUR #Aug26
YESargusmedia.com92%match51¢+39%
Venezuela's July oil production at 1.2mn b/d
YESVenezuela State-Backed TV93%match53¢+34%
Analyst predicts double-digit growth in Venezuelan GDP by year's end. Oil production has increased from 942,000 to over 1.23 million barrels per day. Highlights include dialogue with the IMF and UN, and the Amnesty Law benefiting over 8,000 people. #teleSUR #Venezuela #Economy #29Jul
NOalhadath99%match32¢-9%
The death toll from the Venezuelan earthquakes has risen to 2,295, with 11,267 injured.
NOalarabiya99%match32¢-9%
The death toll from the Venezuelan earthquakes has risen to 2,295, with 11,267 injured.
YESWalter Bloomberg99%match70¢+1%
VENEZUELA OIL EXPORTS EDGE LOWER • • Venezuela's oil exports slipped to 1.2 million bpd in June. • • Exports to the U.S. rose to 630,000 bpd, while shipments to India fell to 277,000 bpd. • • Chevron's Venezuelan oil exports increased to 293,000 bpd, while exports by trading firms declined to 775,000 bpd.
YESIran State-Run Shana99%match69¢+3%
Venezuela's oil production continues after a powerful earthquake Venezuela's oil minister announced the continuation of oil production despite two earthquakes of more than 7 on the Richter scale in the country. Venezuela's oil minister, in a radio interview, announced that crude oil production is generally 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day, and said that the country's authorities are evaluating fuel storage, however, gas and gasoline are being supplied to the people. shana.ir/news/2256378 @Shananewsroom
YESnytimes.com99%match62¢+15%
Venezuela's oil production was unaffected by Wednesday's two earthquakes, with total output currently at 1.2 million barrels per day, Hydrocarbons Minister Paula Henao said. "We are operating normally," Henao told state radio. "All our wells are active; we are producing."
YESnytimes.com99%match61¢+16%
Venezuela’s oil production was unaffected by the two earthquakes that struck on Wednesday, with overall output currently standing at 1.2 million barrels per day, said Energy Minister Paula Henao. “We are operating under normal conditions,” Henao told the state radio network. “All of our wells are active, and we are producing.”
YESdbws.io99%match66¢+8%
REUTERS NEXT-Venezuela oil exports could rise to 2 mln bpd during this administration, US Energy Secretary says
YESReuters99%match66¢+8%
Reuters Next-U.S. Energy Secretary Wright Says Expects to Be Able to Raise Venezuela Oil Exports to 2 Million Barrels Per Day During This Administration
YESVenezuela State Oil Company98%match67¢+6%
#InPictures|| In commemoration of Lawyers' Day, the Third Legal Update Conference was held in the Simón Bolívar Hall at PDVSA La Campiña, a key space for debate and strengthening the knowledge of our workforce. The president of Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., Héctor Obregón, led the closing of the event, recognizing the historical and strategic role of hydrocarbon law professionals in the evolution of the industry. Obregón also highlighted the resilience of the legal team in the face of more than a thousand unilateral coercive measures imposed against the country since 2014. He emphasized that, thanks to legal ingenuity and tools such as the Anti-Blockade Law, innovative strategies were developed that allowed for significant milestones in the sector between 2023 and 2025, including: -A 26% increase in cumulative production, reaching 1,200,000 bpd in 2025. - Drafting of 31 Production Participation Contracts, attracting $900 million in investment. - Recovery of 21% of refining processing capacity, guaranteeing national fuel with 100% sovereign production. - Successful export of 309 million barrels under favorable international contracts. The event concluded with explicit recognition of the tenacity, perseverance, and technical expertise of the industry's legal team.
YESIraq State News Agency (INA)99%match51¢+39%
Oil Minister: We have decided to continue producing crude oil at a level of 1.4 million barrels per day.
YESCGTN America99%match13¢+446%
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: WE DO NOT NEED A NET ZERO SCENARIO BY THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY > U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: I THINK YOU'LL SEE SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY OF ADDITIONAL VENEZUELAN OIL PRODUCTION BY YEAR-END
YESCGTN America99%match13¢+446%
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: WE ARE NOT SATISFIED YET BY THE CHANGES AT THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY > U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: I THINK YOU'LL SEE SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY OF ADDITIONAL VENEZUELAN OIL PRODUCTION BY YEAR-END
YESCGTN America98%match13¢+446%
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: I THINK YOU'LL SEE SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND BARRELS PER DAY OF ADDITIONAL VENEZUELAN OIL PRODUCTION BY YEAR-END

Where does the news lean?

37YES12NO7neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

Past moves on this market

Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

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