Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? Odds fell to 60% on Sep 2, 2026

OpenMove

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 72¢ to 59.5¢ (-12.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from White House Rapid Response.

How did the odds move?

At match72¢
+5m72¢
+30m59¢
+1h59.5¢
1h move-12.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 2, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 72¢ → 58.5¢-13.5 ptsafter a signal from Argus Reporter

What moved the odds?

YesWhite House Rapid Response97%match
.@SecretaryWright on Venezuelan oil production: "Today, it's over 1.2 million barrels/day. I think we'll be well over 1.5 million barrels/day by the first half of next year — and Venezuelan production will be over 2 million barrels/day by the end of this decade."

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 71% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES71¢
NO29¢

Vol$11K

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Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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