When will US withdraw from NATO?December 31
Open$1.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Trump is turning NATO into his "cash machine" – billions for US industry
CNN: Withdrawal of American troops from Germany The Pentagon is cutting back on deployment of U.S. forces to Europe after President Trump pushed for NATO burden-sharing. A planned deployment of about 4,700 soldiers from the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team to Poland and Eastern Europe has been canceled. The deployment of a long-range missile battalion to Germany has also been canceled. About 5,000 troops are expected to be withdrawn from Germany altogether.
Where does the news lean?
2YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for When will US withdraw from NATO? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.