When will US withdraw from NATO?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 3% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
NATO summit avoids US withdrawal nightmare; Trump says "not satisfied."
Trump is turning NATO into his "cash machine" – billions for US industry
Trump is turning NATO into his "cash machine" – billions for US industry
CNN: Withdrawal of American troops from Germany The Pentagon is cutting back on deployment of U.S. forces to Europe after President Trump pushed for NATO burden-sharing. A planned deployment of about 4,700 soldiers from the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team to Poland and Eastern Europe has been canceled. The deployment of a long-range missile battalion to Germany has also been canceled. About 5,000 troops are expected to be withdrawn from Germany altogether.
Rubio pares down the utility of NATO to U.S. basing rights
Trump slams NATO, calling the alliance "very disappointing" and saying the U.S. doesn't need it. "NATO was not there when we wanted them," the president said.
Trump: We don't need NATO, and if we did, they wouldn't be there.
Europe is creating a backup plan in case the US withdraws from NATO & plans to transform it into a more "European" one • • @WSJ • • EU aims to increase European representation in NATO’s command roles. This initiative has gained support from Germany
Urgent: Trump slams NATO again for not helping U.S.
United States of America: Trump: I am very disappointed that NATO did not stand by us
Trump: I am very disappointed in NATO; they did not stand by us.
#Breaking | Trump: I am very disappointed in NATO for not standing by us
Trump: I am very disappointed in NATO; they did not stand by us.
Trump: I am very disappointed in NATO; they did not stand by us.
Trump may withdraw some military units from Europe due to dissatisfaction with allies "US President Donald Trump, frustrated by the lack of help from NATO allies in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and angered by the lack of progress on the US acquisition of Greenland, has discussed with advisers options for withdrawing certain US units from Europe," Reuters reported, citing senior White House sources. Subscribe to Ukrinform | Facebook | X | YouTube
US prepares to punish Nato states for Iran rift
Reuters Exclusive-Trump weighs pulling some US troops from Europe amid NATO strains, official says
EXCLUSIVE-Trump weighs pulling some US troops from Europe amid NATO strains, official says
White House considers plan to penalize NATO allies unhelpful to war effort: Official
The Economist: European allies are losing hope of keeping the US in NATO Donald Trump is furious with the Europeans' refusal to help in the war against Iran. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
The Economist: European allies are losing hope of keeping the US in NATO Donald Trump is furious with the Europeans' refusal to help in the war against Iran. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Shares of defense-related companies such as IHI rise amid speculation over the US considering withdrawing from NATO.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.