Who will Trump speak to in September?Friedrich Merz
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Friedrich Merz canceled a meeting with Donald Trump after a post congratulating the AfD, The Guardian reports. The German government did not give a reason for the cancellation, but emphasized that it was not due to a scheduling conflict. A spokesman for the chancellor also did not confirm a connection between the German chancellor's decision and the US president's post. At the same time, the cabinet recalled that Merz has repeatedly spoken out against external interference and commentary on domestic political processes in Germany, including elections. On September 6, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44.5% in the elections to the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament, while the CDU received 17.2%. Later, Trump called the night a triumph for the "populist party," saying Germany was tired of "horrible immigration rules and regulations" and calling for the country to be made "great again." More IZ RU news in MAX [in reply to: Germany is tired of "horrible immigration rules and regulations" — they have caused serious damage to the country, said Donald Trump, commenting on the victory of the Alternative for Germany party. The US President is confident that Germany will no longer tolerate these rules. He called for Germany to be made "great again," referring to the slogan of his 2016 election campaign, "Make America Great Again." On September 6, in the state parliament elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany party won 44.5%. Friedrich Merz's CDU took second place, winning only 17.2%. Trump noted that this night was a true triumph for the "populist party." Friedrich Merz stated in 2025 that he had no intention of tightening European asylum and immigration laws. Bundestag member Matthias Moosdorf told Izvestia that measures regarding migration were one of the main reasons for the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt. More IZ RU news in MAX]
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has canceled a phone call with Donald Trump, The Guardian reports, citing a spokesperson for Merz. The Chancellor's spokesperson declined to comment on the reason for the cancellation, but noted that it was not related to Merz's schedule. Earlier, Trump published a message on the social network Truth Social in which he linked the Alternative for Germany party's victory in the elections in Saxony-Anhalt to residents' dissatisfaction with the country's immigration policy. The US President called the night after the election "truly triumphant" and used the abbreviation MGGA, a reference to his signature slogan, MAGA ("Make America Great Again!"). Read, watch, and listen to RBC in one app for iOS and Android
RBC channel on "Max"
Assaf Rosenzweig
A spokesman for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that Berlin decided to cancel a planned phone call between Merz and Trump today to mark the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, after Trump congratulated the far-right's victory in East Germany last night.
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.
Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.
This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe.
If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Who will Trump speak to in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.