Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?No Next Chancellor before 2028
Open$109Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 68% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES68¢
NO33¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
German Chancellor Merz reiterates his intention to remain in office after losing seats in state parliamentary elections.
Merz refuses to resign and calls the Alternative for Germany's victory disastrous: The good days are over ====== German Chancellor Merz describes the Alternative for Germany party's victory in local elections as "disastrous" Merz comments on the far right's advance, saying that "Germany's good days are over" Merz confirms that he will not resign from his position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the Christian Democratic Union party
Merz refuses to resign and calls the Alternative for Germany's victory disastrous: The good days are over German Chancellor Merz describes the Alternative for Germany party's victory in local elections as "disastrous" Merz comments on the far right's advance, saying that "Germany's good days are over" Merz confirms that he will not resign from his position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the Christian Democratic Union party
Merz: I will not resign from my position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the party
Where does the news lean?
7YES2NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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