Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

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Market pricing makes No Next Chancellor before 2028 the favorite at 67% across 66 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

SPD: After Bärbel Bas's resignation, Lars Klingbeil is going all out.
German Chancellor Merz reiterates his intention to remain in office after losing seats in state parliamentary elections.
Live: #GERMANY German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to maintain his coalition government with the Social Democrats, asserting that the "democratic future" of Germany depends on it after stinging defeats...
Germany's far-right AfD has predicted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be out of office before the end of the year, a day after his centre-right CDU party suffered two bruising state election defeats. •
Regional elections in Germany: an AfD leader predicts that Friedrich Merz will no longer be chancellor at the end of the year, following his party's heavy defeat
Live: #GERMANY Earlier in the evening, Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out resigning during a brief address...
Hendrik Wüstfranceinfo.fr92%match76¢+13%
Live: #GERMANY Earlier in the evening, Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out resigning during a brief address...
Merz refuses to resign and calls the Alternative for Germany's victory disastrous: The good days are over ====== German Chancellor Merz describes the Alternative for Germany party's victory in local elections as "disastrous" Merz comments on the far right's advance, saying that "Germany's good days are over" Merz confirms that he will not resign from his position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the Christian Democratic Union party
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URGENT Merz confirmed his readiness to remain the head of the CDU and continue his work as Chancellor of Germany
Merz refuses to resign and calls the Alternative for Germany's victory disastrous: The good days are over German Chancellor Merz describes the Alternative for Germany party's victory in local elections as "disastrous" Merz comments on the far right's advance, saying that "Germany's good days are over" Merz confirms that he will not resign from his position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the Christian Democratic Union party
TASS: Merz announced his desire to continue serving as leader of the CDU and chancellor of Germany.
Merz: I will not resign from my position as Chancellor of Germany and as leader of the party

What is this event about?

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.