Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

OpenOutcomes66as of

Market pricing makes Person A the favorite at 50% across 66 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Person A50%
Person B50%
Person C50%
Person D50%
Person E50%
Person F50%
Person G50%
Person H50%
Person I50%
Person J50%
Person K50%
Person L50%
Person M50%
Person N50%
Person O50%
Person P50%
Person Q50%
No Next Chancellor before 202844%
Markus Söder21%
Hendrik Wüst19%
Boris Pistorius8%
Alice Weidel5%
Tino Chrupalla4%
Felix Banaszak4%
Heidi Reichinnek3%
Sahra Wagenknecht3%
Jens Spahn1%
Carsten Linnemann1%
Lars Klingbeil1%
Katharina Dröge1%

All further outcomes (36 more):

Person R · Person S · Person T · Person U · Person V · Person W · Person X · Person Y · Person Z · Person AA · Person AB · Person AC · Person AD · Person AE · Person AF · Person AG · Person AH · Person AI · Person AJ · Person AK · Person AL · Person AM · Person AN · Person AO · Person AP · Person AQ · Person AR · Person AS · Person AT · Person AU · Person AV · Person AW · Person AX · Person AY · Person AZ · Other

What moved the odds?

A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.

What is this event about?

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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