Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?<25
ResolvedOutcome: No$22Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Conflicts in Yemen have brought ship traffic in Bab al-Mandeb to a standstill. The escalating conflict on Yemen's western coast has brought ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most sensitive points in global logistics, to a standstill, putting a vital maritime route at great risk. 10% of world maritime trade and 12% of global crude oil pass through here. The passage of oil and chemical tankers has decreased by 91%. Only 1 ship passed through in the last 24 hours, while total ship traffic decreased by 88% in 24 hours.
Following the Houthi takeover of Perim Island and Yemen's southern Red Sea coast, AIS-transmitting traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has picked up. Satellite imagery from 08:01 UTC on September 14 confirms that no dark vessels were detected transiting at the time. • • Although seemingly counterintuitive, broadcasting AIS is how vessels signal they're not party to the conflict, claiming the free passage that still stands for non-Saudi vessels.
Where does the news lean?
8YES1NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
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See all outcomes for Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.