Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?40+
ResolvedOutcome: No$5Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Urgent Ministry of Transport and Public Works: - 408 commercial vessels transited the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21 - 196 vessels transited Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 vessels southbound over the 10-day period - More than 40 commercial vessels of various types transit the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily - The number of vessels transiting Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 since the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10 - Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels - The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or an insecurity in the waterway
Conflicts in Yemen have brought ship traffic in Bab al-Mandeb to a standstill. The escalating conflict on Yemen's western coast has brought ship traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the most sensitive points in global logistics, to a standstill, putting a vital maritime route at great risk. 10% of world maritime trade and 12% of global crude oil pass through here. The passage of oil and chemical tankers has decreased by 91%. Only 1 ship passed through in the last 24 hours, while total ship traffic decreased by 88% in 24 hours.
Due to escalating conflicts and security risks on Yemen's western coast, commercial ship traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait has fallen to critical levels. Before the crisis, an average of 70-75 ships passed through the strait daily; in the last 3 days, only 79 commercial ships have passed through. According to maritime tracking systems, 25 ships passed through the strait on September 8th, 28 on September 9th, and 26 on September 10th. News that the Houthis have taken control of the strategic Zukur Island and seized Mayyun Island in Bab al-Mandeb has increased tensions in the region. It is stated that the pressure on the strait, which is one of the critical transit points of the trade and energy line extending from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal, could trigger a new rise in global oil prices.
Where does the news lean?
3YES7NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
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