When will the US officially declare war on Iran?December 31
Open$819Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Iran war, day 130 - what to know
US bombing Iran for 2nd straight day after Trump declares cease-fire ‘over’ for ‘sick’ regime
Live: US bombing Iran for second straight day after Trump declares cease-fire 'over' for 'sick' regime
U.S. Launches New Strikes on Iran After Trump Declares Ceasefire Over -- WSJ
Live: US and Iran trade strikes, as Trump declares ceasefire "over." Here's the latest
US confirms: "We have attacked Iran with force"
Independent: Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts. @Farsna
The Independent: Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts @Defapress_ir
Independent: "Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts" @TasnimNews
The Independent: "Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts" @iribnews
House Democrats to try to force Iran war powers resolution during pro forma session today
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran Responding to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @Defapress_ir
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran In response to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @TasnimNews
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
United States: CNN reports that Democratic lawmakers are seeking to persuade Republicans to join a resolution limiting President Trump's power to wage war on Iran.
HOW TRUMP TOOK THE US TO WAR WITH IRAN: @jonathanvswan and report for our forthcoming book, out June 23 with excerpt here
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran
YESReuters99%match12¢-75%
Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades
NOReuters99%match90¢+8%
Iran will treat any attack as 'all-out war against us,' says senior Iran official
Where does the news lean?
5YES22NO16neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
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