When will the US officially declare war on Iran?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 3% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Iran war, day 130 - what to know
US bombing Iran for 2nd straight day after Trump declares cease-fire ‘over’ for ‘sick’ regime
Live: US bombing Iran for second straight day after Trump declares cease-fire 'over' for 'sick' regime
U.S. Launches New Strikes on Iran After Trump Declares Ceasefire Over -- WSJ
Live: US and Iran trade strikes, as Trump declares ceasefire "over." Here's the latest
US confirms: "We have attacked Iran with force"
US Congressman to Hegsett: Mr. Secretary of War, you said, "We will not give the Iranians any peace, we will not show them any mercy." This is considered a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. @TasnimNews
Fitch Ratings: Prolonged Iran war case highlights risks in multiple sectors and regions. •
Fitch Ratings: Prolonged Iran war case highlights risks in multiple sectors and regions.
Iran's UN envoy: The United States and Israel launched an unjustified war against Iran in flagrant violation of international law.
Iran's UN envoy: The United States and Israel have launched a full-scale war against Iran in flagrant violation of international law and the UN Charter.
The damage Iran has inflicted on US bases is greater than Washington acknowledges, according to reports and studies. The war has cost the US billions of dollars and a large portion of its precision weapons arsenal. Find more information at:
April 25: Iran presents 'workable framework' to end war as US sinks deeper into internal turmoil • •
Will the US invade Iran before 2027? • Polymarket sees this at a 32 percent chance of occurring, despite a ceasefire being in place. • A full invasion is unlikely although if peace negotiations continue to stall limited ground incursions could be a possibility. • What do you think?
US declares victory while preparing for more war with Iran
Independent: Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts. @Farsna
The Independent: Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts @Defapress_ir
Independent: "Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts" @TasnimNews
The Independent: "Trump declares victory, but the war with Iran has failed on all fronts" @iribnews
Harris calls Iran conflict a "war of choice"
"Iran does not seek war but will not renounce its rights"
House Democrats to try to force Iran war powers resolution during pro forma session today
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran Responding to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @Defapress_ir
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran Responding to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @Defapress_ir
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran In response to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @TasnimNews
US Senator: Trump should be removed for war with Iran In response to news that Trump is backing down from threatening Iran's infrastructure, the American Democratic senator emphasized that Washington should not have started a war with Iran in the first place. @TasnimNews
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
White House spokesperson: We declare a military victory for the United States in Iran thanks to the leadership of President Trump.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.