When will the U.S. invade Venezuela?December 31
Open$240Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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