When will the U.S. invade Venezuela?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 4% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
29 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Venezuela suffered a double earthquake on June 24th that affected seven states, leaving deaths and injuries, as well as serious structural damage in the affected areas. This double earthquake is also imperialist, part of the United States' strategy to exploit this natural event to try to whitewash its invasion of the South American country on January 3rd. Journalist Sasi Alejandre discusses in "The Other Voice" how the U.S. intends to forget its military action against Venezuela, where people lost their lives. Don't miss this full episode on our YouTube channel, Multimedia del SUR.
Venezuela denounces the "theft and hijacking" of a new oil tanker by the United States.
Gunboat Diplomacy Accelerated: US Seizes Another Oil Tanker Off Venezuela's Coast
BREAKING VIDEO: Second tanker seized near Venezuela as US enforces oil blockade
BREAKING VIDEO: Second tanker seized near Venezuela as US enforces oil blockade
BREAKING: U.S. officials say USA has seized another oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast in international waters just days after Trump announced a naval blockade of sanctioned vessels. Venezuela now threatens the U.S. Navy with severe repercussions. Should U.S. sailors be fearful?
BREAKING: U.S. officials say USA has seized another oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast in international waters just days after Trump announced a naval blockade of sanctioned vessels. Venezuela now threatens the U.S. Navy with severe repercussions. Should U.S. sailors be fearful?
Personnel from the United States boarded and seized a vessel off the coast of Venezuela, according to an official familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Caracas.
Personnel from the United States boarded and seized a vessel off the coast of Venezuela, according to an official familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Caracas.
Personnel from the United States boarded and seized a vessel off the coast of Venezuela, according to an official familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Caracas.
Personnel from the United States boarded and seized a vessel off the coast of Venezuela, according to an official familiar with the matter, as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Caracas.
BREAKING: U.S. forces projected to seize another Venezuelan oil tanker this year. >90% chance.
BREAKING: The U.S. has attempted to interdict and seize another sanctioned vessel off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, officials say, according to Reuters.
BREAKING: The U.S. has attempted to interdict and seize another sanctioned vessel off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, officials say, according to Reuters.
BREAKING: The U.S. has attempted to interdict and seize another sanctioned vessel off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, officials say, according to Reuters.
U.S. HAS ATTEMPTED TO INTERDICT AND SEIZE ANOTHER SANCTIONED VESSEL OFF COAST OF VENEZUELA IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS, REPORTS
U.S. HAS ATTEMPTED TO INTERDICT AND SEIZE ANOTHER SANCTIONED VESSEL OFF COAST OF VENEZUELA IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS, REUTERS REPORTS
U.S. HAS ATTEMPTED TO INTERDICT AND SEIZE ANOTHER SANCTIONED VESSEL OFF COAST OF VENEZUELA IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS - REPORTS
U.S. HAS ATTEMPTED TO INTERDICT AND SEIZE ANOTHER SANCTIONED VESSEL OFF COAST OF VENEZUELA IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS - REPORTS
BREAKING: Trump says he will begin land strikes in Venezuela.
Venezuela denounces U.S. attempt at intimidation with combat aircraft flyover
Venezuela denounces U.S. attempt at intimidation with combat aircraft flyover
U.S. preparing to seize more oil tankers off Venezuela coast: Report
President Donald Trump won’t rule out a ground invasion in Venezuela, but he doesn’t have the forces lined up to do it. w/ @paulmcleary @JackDetsch
President Donald Trump won’t rule out a ground invasion in Venezuela, but he doesn’t have the forces lined up to do it. w/ @paulmcleary @JackDetsch
Trump declines to rule out troops in Venezuela -Politico
Trump declines to rule out troops in Venezuela -Politico
Experts warn a US strike on Venezuela could trigger instability rather than a peaceful transition. Read more:
The White House’s massive military pressure campaign in the Southern Caribbean is not enough to trigger regime change in Venezuela, whose dictator is confident he can ride out the storm, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion)
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.