September Unemployment Rate4.4%
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
BREAKING: The September jobs report comes in far below expectations, with the U.S. adding just 29,000 jobs as unemployment rises slightly to 4.2%. • • Economists had expected roughly 90,000 jobs, making the actual gain less than a third of the forecast. • • The sharp slowdown follows a much stronger August, when employers added 162,000 jobs and unemployment stood at 4.1%.
The unemployment rate tells a similar picture of relative stability. • • It was 4.19% in June, 4.09% in July, 4.14% in August, and 4.18% in September. • • Since June 2024, the unemployment rate has not fallen below 4.0% or risen higher than 4.5%.
U.S. September Payrolls Miss Sharply at 29K as Unemployment Rises to 4.2% • • U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, well below the 90,000 market forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% versus 4.1% expected. August payroll growth was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000, and July was revised to a 10,000 decline, leaving the two months combined 60,000 lower than previously reported. The data point to a broader cooling in U.S. labor-market momentum.
US employment increased by 29,000 in September, below market expectations; unemployment rate at 4.2%
Live: The slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent adds credence to the argument floated by several top officials this week that the Fed can afford to proceed gradually with rate increases after its adjustment in September. Expectations for another quarter-point rate rise at the Fed’s next meeting in October, just days before the midterms, have plummeted in the past few days.
The US unemployment rate accelerated to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August, exceeding expectations.
U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September. with unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. • Ahead of the report, traders were pricing in only a 23% of a second Fed rate hike at the U.S. central bank's policy meeting later this month.
NONews94%match100¢
US unemployment rate in September was 4.2% (Reuters forecast: 4.1%)
NONews93%match100¢
*US SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; EST. 4.1%
NOReuters95%match100¢
U.S. September Unemployment Rate 4.2% (Consensus 4.1%)
NOdbnews93%match100¢
*US SEPT. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; EST. 4.1%
Where does the news lean?
0YES11NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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