Michigan Senate Election WinnerMike Rogers (R)
Open$279Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 36% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES36¢
NO65¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
In Michigan, Mike Rogers pivoted to the general election much faster and cleaner than Abdul El-Sayed—picking at parts of his coalition before AES could do the same. • • And/but: in the last week, we’ve seen AES try to (somewhat) distance himself from Piker; apologize for “hurt people hurt people” remarks and pivot to attacking Rogers on Trump tariffs.
FOX NEWS POLLS: Brand new polling out of Michigan and Maine shows how voters are leaning in two of the most consequential races this midterm. • • Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers currently holds a 51% to 47% lead over Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the nation's most competitive Senate contests, according to new Fox News Polls. • • Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow 48% to 46% lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins. • • @alexismcadamstv @bretbaier @specialreport
DDHQ Shifts 2026 Michigan Senate Race from Lean Democrat to Toss-up
Where does the news lean?
6YES4NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 57% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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See all outcomes for Michigan Senate Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.