Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D)
Open$331Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 65% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES65¢
NO36¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
After a race decided by just 1%, Egyptian-American physician Abdulrahman El-Sayed (Abdul) secured the Democratic Party's nomination for the Senate from Michigan, defeating his AIPAC-backed opponent, Representative Haley Stevens, and moving closer to becoming the first Muslim senator in the history of Congress.
DDHQ Shifts 2026 Michigan Senate Race from Lean Democrat to Toss-up
NOPOLITICO99%match23¢+52%
Michigan’s 3-car pileup of a primary has Senate Democrats worried
Where does the news lean?
7YES7NO13neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 76% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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See all outcomes for Michigan Senate Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.