Florida Senate Election WinnerAshley Moody (R)
Open$53Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 92% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES92¢
NO9¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Sabato Crystal Ball moves Florida Senate race to safely Republican after Nixon win
In the DDHQ Forecast, Republicans are the favorites to win Florida's Senate race. They have an 80% win probability, with a projected vote share of 54% Republican and 46% Democratic.
Democrats are projected to win a special election for a Florida legislative district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat. The result is a reversal from 2024, when a Republican won the district by 19 percentage points.
Where does the news lean?
2YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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See all outcomes for Florida Senate Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.