Florida Senate Election WinnerAngie Nixon (D)
Open$82Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 10% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES10¢
NO91¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
For the first time, a black socialist woman wins a Senate primary in Florida Angie Nixon, a state representative and member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), won the Democratic primary for a seat in the United States Senate. She defeated retired Army officer Alexander Vindman. @isna94
Angie Nixon pulled off a stunning victory in the Florida Democratic Senate primary, defeating a well-funded party opponent with an aggressive and effective campaign. Nixon championed far-left economic policies at a time when many Floridaers were concerned about the cost of living.
DSA breaks through with Angie Nixon’s Florida Senate primary upset, but Republicans expected to roll in November
Democrats are projected to win a special election for a Florida legislative district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat. The result is a reversal from 2024, when a Republican won the district by 19 percentage points.
Where does the news lean?
13YES4NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 63% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
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