Florida Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Ashley Moody (R) the favorite at 92% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
For the first time, a black socialist woman wins a Senate primary in Florida Angie Nixon, a state representative and member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), won the Democratic primary for a seat in the United States Senate. She defeated retired Army officer Alexander Vindman. @isna94
Angie Nixon pulled off a stunning victory in the Florida Democratic Senate primary, defeating a well-funded party opponent with an aggressive and effective campaign. Nixon championed far-left economic policies at a time when many Floridaers were concerned about the cost of living.
Angie Nixon (D)The left of the Democratic Party scored its biggest upset of the year on Tuesday — and it did so in Florida, a state that is usually inhospitable territory for anything adjacent to socialism. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D) beat Alexander Vindman handily in the Democrats’ U.S. Senate primary. Nixon, a progressive lawmaker and organizer…93%match6¢+50%
The Memo: Angie Nixon’s shock Florida win gives fresh boost — and a new test — for the left
Live: Angie Nixon’s Senate primary upset sets up a political puzzle for Florida Democrats
Angie Nixon’s Senate primary upset sets up a political puzzle for Florida Democrats
DSA breaks through with Angie Nixon’s Florida Senate primary upset, but Republicans expected to roll in November
Who is Angie Nixon, the democratic socialist who won big in Florida?
Ashley Moody (R)Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the Florida Senate race in favor of Republicans following an unexpected Tuesday win for a democratic socialist in the primary. State Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Fla.) won the Democratic nomination over Alex Vindman, the former director for European Affairs at the National Security Council, in a complete shakeup that notched…93%match92¢
Sabato Crystal Ball moves Florida Senate race to safely Republican after Nixon win
In the DDHQ Forecast, Republicans are the favorites to win Florida's Senate race. They have an 80% win probability, with a projected vote share of 54% Republican and 46% Democratic.
Democrats are projected to win a special election for a Florida legislative district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat. The result is a reversal from 2024, when a Republican won the district by 19 percentage points.
Democrats are projected to win a special election for a Florida legislative district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach. Democrat Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat. The result is a reversal from 2024, when a Republican won the district by 19 percentage points.
Democrats are closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November according to @Polymarket. Think the Dems are taking this back? [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: Democrats closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November.
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: Democrats closing in on retaking control of the Senate this November. >
Democrats post early fundraising edge in marquee 2026 Senate races
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.