Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of VictoryLabour 5-10%
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Holborn & St Pancras: • • Labour sees off the Greens to retain Keir Starmer’s former inner London seat with 12,292 votes (45% of the vote) to 8,928 (33% of the vote). • • The result will relieve Andy Burnham: if Makerfield was proof of concept that Labour can beat Reform with him at the helm, this was the same for the Greens. • • The by-election had initially been considered a two-horse race between the Labour candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, and the Green Zack Polanski, whose leadership has been rocked over his party’s ’zionism is racism’ motion. • • Yet the Greens tripled their vote from 2024 but - more significantly - just exceeded the combined 29.3% share that they and a left-wing independent won then. • • “Of course I can carry on as leader of the Green Party. Of course, I wanted to win. No-one runs an election to lose,” he told reporters. • • But while Labour’s vote share dropped, the result was seven points above the party’s low point at the May local elections, confirming a recovery is underway.
Labour hold Holborn & St Pancras with 45.17% of vote v 32.81% for Polanski. A blow for Green leader who gambled who could take the seat & lost. Says he’ll continue as leader, but facing almighty internal row & Qs over leadership over the ‘Zionism is racism’ motion passed at conf
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO27neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
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