Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%? Odds fell to 1% on Oct 9, 2026
Open
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%? On , the market’s odds fell from 19¢ to 0.5¢ (-18.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from news.sky.com.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 9, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 19¢ → 0.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 19¢ → 0.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from telegraph.co.uk
- 19¢ → 0.5¢-18.5 ptsafter a signal from news.sky.com
What moved the odds?
Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
$2K
Follow this market
Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 5-10%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.