Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Vote Share Margin of VictoryGreen 10-15%
ResolvedOutcome: No$1Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Holborn & St Pancras: • • Labour sees off the Greens to retain Keir Starmer’s former inner London seat with 12,292 votes (45% of the vote) to 8,928 (33% of the vote). • • The result will relieve Andy Burnham: if Makerfield was proof of concept that Labour can beat Reform with him at the helm, this was the same for the Greens. • • The by-election had initially been considered a two-horse race between the Labour candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, and the Green Zack Polanski, whose leadership has been rocked over his party’s ’zionism is racism’ motion. • • Yet the Greens tripled their vote from 2024 but - more significantly - just exceeded the combined 29.3% share that they and a left-wing independent won then. • • “Of course I can carry on as leader of the Green Party. Of course, I wanted to win. No-one runs an election to lose,” he told reporters. • • But while Labour’s vote share dropped, the result was seven points above the party’s low point at the May local elections, confirming a recovery is underway.
Live: Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens, but there may also be relief - Peter Walker's analysis
Holborn and St Pancras byelection loss will disappoint Greens – but there may also be relief
Labour hold Holborn & St Pancras with 45.17% of vote v 32.81% for Polanski. A blow for Green leader who gambled who could take the seat & lost. Says he’ll continue as leader, but facing almighty internal row & Qs over leadership over the ‘Zionism is racism’ motion passed at conf
London by-election: Green Party leader Zack Polanski defeated in Keir Starmer's former constituency
The Labour Party, led by the British Prime Minister, defeated the Green Party to win the by-election and retain the Schkell seat.
Labour Holds Off Green Party in Election for Starmer’s Former London Seat
Labour sees off Green challenge to win Holborn by-election
Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by-election, seeing off challenge from Green leader Zack Polanski
Labour fends off Green party to win Holborn and St Pancras byelection
Greens concede Holborn and St Pancras by-election to Labour
*BREAKING @Telegraph* • • The Greens have conceded defeat in Holborn and St Pancras • • Green spox: “It is clear now we will come a close second in this by-election. Taking the fight to Labour in one of its safest seats shows just how far the Greens have come” • •
GREENS CONCEDE IN HOLBORN AND ST PANCRAS • • Spokesman: "It is clear now we will come a close second in this by-election. Taking the fight to Labour in one of its safest seats shows just how far the Greens have come."
Where does the news lean?
0YES15NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
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