Fed Decision in July?50+ bps increase
ResolvedOutcome: No$27.6Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%. • • A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
FED WATCH • • Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike. • • Citadel Securities disagrees, expecting Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of the forward-guidance era. • • With markets split, today's decision and Warsh's remarks could set the tone for the rest of 2026. •
Fed rate-hike voices swell before July decision, rates still seen on hold
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
Where does the news lean?
1YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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