Fed Decision in July?
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This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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26 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Fed, in a nail-biter July meeting, decides to leave rates unchanged
Split Fed decision to hold rates in July
Policy forecasts are divided just before the FOMC meeting: 60% predict no change, 40% predict a rate hike; attention focused on the yen exchange rate.
Policy forecasts are divided just before the FOMC meeting: 60% predict no change, 40% predict a rate hike; attention is focused on the yen exchange rate.
There is a 25% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES by 0.25% today according to Polymarket traders • • There is a 75% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed keep rates unchanged today according to Polymarket traders
FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%. • • A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%. • • A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
FED WATCH • • Kalshi traders see a 77% chance the Fed holds rates today and a 23% chance of a surprise 25bp hike. • • Citadel Securities disagrees, expecting Chair Kevin Warsh to raise rates to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility and signal the end of the forward-guidance era. • • With markets split, today's decision and Warsh's remarks could set the tone for the rest of 2026. •
Will the US Federal Reserve change its interest rates? The decision is expected this Wednesday, with markets favoring the status quo.
Fed rate-hike voices swell before July decision, rates still seen on hold
Warsh's early tone signals continuity, not change. No cuts expected this year according to CME's FedWatch. A hike toward the end of the year is still an open question. Neither this week's CPI print nor the recent weak labor report changes the Fed's stance, since they look past single-month trends.
POLYMARKET: 95% CHANCE OF NO FED RATE CHANGE AT JULY MEETING • • Yes: 95% • No: 5% • Yes odds up 18%, about $63.6M wagered. • • The jump follows softer-than-expected inflation data this week that had traders cutting bets on a Fed rate hike. The July FOMC meeting is July 28-29.
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
FED RATE HIKE ODDS SURGE IN PREDICTION MARKETS • • Prediction markets now price a 53% chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike before July 2027, with odds jumping sharply in recent trading. • • With the next policy window just 49 days away (June 30), activity has picked up fast • Traders are now split on timing: will the Fed move sooner than expected, or wait longer? •
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
An unusually divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady as policymakers grappled with the policy impact of persistent inflation and awaited a looming leadership transition at the central bank. • • In what may have been Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change. • • However, the meeting saw a dramatic turn. • • More:
TRADERS EXPECT THE FED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AND HAVE PRICED IN A 20 BASIS POINT INCREASE FOR THE YEAR 2026.
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.