Fed Decision in July?50+ bps decrease
ResolvedOutcome: No$22.0Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
FED PLAYBOOK: JPM'S S&P 500 SCENARIOS • • JPMorgan expects the Fed to hold rates, with a hawkish hold as its base case (50%), leaving the S&P 500 roughly flat to down 0.5%. • • A dovish hold (28%) is seen as the most bullish outcome, lifting the index up to 1%. • • A 25bp hike (20%) could send the S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, with the Nasdaq likely underperforming.
67% chance the Fed maintains rates in its July 2026 decision.
A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision. • • The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%. • • For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision.
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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See all outcomes for Fed Decision in July? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.