ECB Interest Rates: September 202650+ bps decrease
ResolvedOutcome: No$16Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking its second rate hike this year.
FED HIKE ODDS SURGE AFTER ECB MOVE • • Kalshi now puts a 64% chance on a 25-bp Fed hike in September, versus 36% for no change. • • The repricing follows the ECB’s 25-bp hike, as energy-driven inflation concerns push central banks toward a more hawkish stance. • •
ECB HIKES RATES 25 BPS AS INFLATION RISKS RISE • • The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as the Middle East conflict keeps inflation pressures elevated. • • The ECB now sees inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, with the latter two forecasts revised higher. • • Growth forecasts were also upgraded, while the ECB stressed that future rate decisions remain data-dependent with no pre-set path.
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ECB Says Accordingly, Interest Rates on Deposit Facility, Main Refinancing Operations and Marginal Lending Facility Will Be Increased to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% Respectively, with Effect From 16 September 2026
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ECB Raises Interest Rate on Deposit Facility to 2.50% vs 2.25% (Reuters Poll 2.50%)
RPT-ECB set for September rate hike with no appetite to signal more, sources say
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Reuters Poll-ECB Deposit Rate to Be 2.50% at End-2026, Said 55 of 69 Economists (vs 49 of 74 in July Poll)
ECB on course to raise rates again in September
ECB Officials Are Ready To Raise Interest Rates In September - @business •
Where does the news lean?
0YES19NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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See all outcomes for ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.